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Safety Research Papers

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• Reconstructing Sober Driving Baselines: Strategy for Evaluating Automated Driving Systems Beyond the Status Quo

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  Scanlon, JM, Kusano KD, McMurry, TL, Campolettano, ET, Victor, T. (2026). Reconstructing Sober Driving Baselines: Strategy for Evaluating Automated Driving Systems Beyond the Status Quo. Journal of Safety Research (accepted).

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• On Being Prepared: Automated Vehicle Incident Management Exercise Practices

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  Fraade-Blanar, L., Graves, J., Clark-Ginsberg, A., Cooper, S., Kaufman, J., Lindsey, J., & van Os, P. (2026). On Being Prepared: Automated Vehicle Incident Management Exercise Practices. arXiv preprint arXiv:2609.04777.

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• Zeroing in on Traffic Fatalities in the United States: Using a Safe System Attribution Schema to Determine Fatal Cases Eliminable by Automated Vehicle Fleet Conversion

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  Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., Kusano, K. D., Victor, T. (2026). Zeroing in on Traffic Fatalities in the United States: Using a Safe System Attribution Schema to Determine Fatal Cases Eliminable by Automated Vehicle Fleet Conversion . In Proceedings of the International Research Council On Biomechanics of Injury (IRCOBI) Conference 2026, Munich, Germany. Paper number IRC‐26‐75.

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• Do time of day and day of week matter when comparing Waymo’s automated driving system and human crash involvement rates?

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  Kusano, K. D., Scanlon, J. M., McMurry, T. L., & Victor, T. (2026). Do time of day and day of week matter when comparing Waymo’s automated driving system and human crash involvement rates?. Traffic Injury Prevention, 27(sup1), S275-S285. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2026.2695421

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• High-resolution urban fatal crash rate benchmarks for automated driving system assessment

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  Scanlon, J. M., Kusano, K. D., McMurry, T. L., Campolettano, E. T., & Victor, T. (2026). High-resolution urban fatal crash rate benchmarks for automated driving system assessment. Traffic Injury Prevention, 27(sup1), S251-S262. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2026.2684002

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• Refinements in Benchmarking for Vulnerable Road User Collisions by Comparing Naturalistic Driving and Police-Report Data

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  Campolettano, E., Scanlon, J. M., & Kusano, K. D. (2026). Refinements in Benchmarking for Vulnerable Road User Collisions by Comparing Naturalistic Driving and Police-Report Data. In Proceedings of the 28th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV), Toronto, Canada. Paper ESV26-294.

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• Building scientific consensus on the crash safety performance of automated driving systems

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  Scanlon, J. M., Kusano, K. D., McMurry, T. L., Gode, T., & Victor, T. (2026). Building scientific consensus on the crash safety performance of automated driving systems. In Proceedings of the 28th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV), Toronto, Canada. Paper ESV26-252.

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• The Field of Safe Motion: Operationalizing Affordances in the Field of Safe Travel Using Reachability Analysis

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  Johnson, L., Victor, T., & Engström, J. (2026). The Field of Safe Motion: Operationalizing Affordances in the Field of Safe Travel Using Reachability Analysis. arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.27168. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2604.27168

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• Resolving space-sharing conflicts in road user interactions through uncertainty reduction: An active inference-based computational model

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  Schumann, J. F., Engström, J., Wei, R., Liu, S. Y., Kober, J., & Zgonnikov, A. (2026). Resolving space-sharing conflicts in road user interactions through uncertainty reduction: An active inference-based computational model. arXiv preprint arXiv:2604.19838. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2604.19838

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• Collision avoidance testing of the Waymo automated driving system

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  Kusano, K., Beatty, K., Schnelle, S., Favaro, F., Crary, C., & Victor, T. 2026. Collision avoidance testing of the Waymo automated driving system. SAE Technical Paper, No 2026-01-0519.

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• Collision avoidance effectiveness of an automated driving system using a human driver behavior reference model in reconstructed fatal collisions

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  Scanlon, J.M., Kusano, K.D., Engström, J., Victor, T (2026). Collision Avoidance Effectiveness of an Automated Driving System Using a Human Driver Behavior Reference Model in Reconstructed Fatal Collisions. SAE Technical Paper 2026-01-0520.

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• Assessing a Safety Case: Bottom-up Guidance for Claims and Evidence Evaluation

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  Schnelle, S., Favaro, F., Fraade-Blanar, L., Wichner, D., Broce, H., Miranda, J. (2025). Assessing a Safety Case: Bottom-up Guidance for Claims and Evidence Evaluation. SAE Technical Paper 2026-01-0523.

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• From Stoplights to On-Ramps: A Comprehensive Set of Crash Rate Benchmarks for Freeway and Surface Street ADS Evaluation

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  Scanlon, J. M., McMurry, T. L., Chen, Y., Kusano, K. D., Victor, T. (2026). From Stoplights to On-Ramps: A Comprehensive Set of Crash Rate Benchmarks for Freeway and Surface Street ADS Evaluation. SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.4271/09-14-02-0003.

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• Being good (at driving): Characterizing behavioral expectations on automated and human driven vehicles

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  Fraade-Blanar, L., Favarò, F., Engstrom, J., Cefkin, M., Best, R., Lee, J., & Victor, T. (2026). Being good (at driving): Characterizing behavioral expectations on automated and human driven vehicles. In Automated Road Transportation Symposium (pp. 81-105). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-12374-9_6

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• Building a credible case for safety: Waymo’s approach for the determination of absence of unreasonable Risk

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  Favaro, F., Fraade-Blanar, L., Schnelle, S., Victor, T., Peña, M., Engstrom, J., Scanlon, J., Kusano, K., Smith, D. (2026). Building a Credible Case for Safety: Waymo’s Approach for the Determination of Absence of Unreasonable Risk. Journal of Safety Research, 96, p. 181-196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2025.10.019

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• A mechanistic approach to modeling omnidirectional motorcyclist injury risk

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  Schubert, A., Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., McMurry, T. L., & Unger, T. (2025). A mechanistic approach to modeling omnidirectional motorcyclist injury risk. Traffic Injury Prevention, 26(sup1), S121–S131. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2570829

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• Ride-hailing in the Safe System: Increased Seat Belt Compliance and Late Model Year Vehicles

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  Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., McMurry, T. L., Kusano, K. D. (2025). Ride-hailing in the Safe System: Increased Seat Belt Compliance and Late Model Year Vehicles. In Proceedings of the International Research Council On Biomechanics of Injury (IRCOBI) Conference 2025, Vilnius, Lithuania. Paper number IRC‐25‐67.

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• Automated Brake Onset Detection in Naturalistic Driving Data

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  Liu, S. Y., Engström, J., & Markkula, G. (2025). Automated Brake Onset Detection in Naturalistic Driving Data. arXiv preprint arXiv:2507.17943. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.17943

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• Potential Safety Benefits Associated with Speed Limit Compliance in San Francisco and Phoenix

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  Campolettano, E., T., Kusano, K. D., Victor, T. (2025). Potential Safety Benefits Associated with Speed Limit Compliance in San Francisco and Phoenix. Traffic Injury Prevention, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2538726

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• TARGET setting for high severity collisions: tolerance-based assessment of risk for generalized event thresholds.

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  Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., McMurry, T. L., Kusano, K. D., & Victor, T. (2025). TARGET setting for high severity collisions: tolerance-based assessment of risk for generalized event thresholds. Traffic Safety Research, 9, e000098. https://doi.org/10.55329/wxoa2712

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• Active inference as a unified model of collision avoidance behavior in human drivers

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  Schumann, J. F., Engstroem, J., Johnson, L., O’Kelly, M., Messias, J., Kober, J., & Zgonnikov, A. (2025). Active inference as a unified model of collision avoidance behavior in human drivers. arXiv preprint arXiv:2506.02215.

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• Looking for an out: Affordances, uncertainty and collision avoidance behavior of human drivers

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  Johnson, L., Engström, J., Srinivasan, A., Özturk, I., & Markkula, G. (2025). Looking for an out: Affordances, uncertainty and collision avoidance behavior of human drivers. arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.14842.

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• Determining Absence of Unreasonable Risk: Approval Guidelines for an Automated Driving System Deployment

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  Favaro, F., Schnelle, S., Fraade-Blanar, L., Victor, T., Peña, M., Webb, N., … & Smith, D. (2026). Determining Absence of Unreasonable Risk: Approval Guidelines for an Automated Driving System Release. SAE International Journal of Connected and Automated Vehicles, 9(4). https://doi.org/10.4271/12-09-04-0026

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• Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Rates by Crash Type to Human Benchmarks at 56.7 Million Miles

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  Kusano, K.D., Scanlon, J. M., Chen, Y., McMurry, T. L., Gode, T., Victor, T. (2025). Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Rates by Crash Type to Human Benchmarks at 56.7 Million Miles. Traffic Injury Prevention, 26(sup1), S8–S20. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2499887

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• Developing a Safety Management System for the Automated Vehicle Industry

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  Wichner, D., Wishart, J., Sergent, J., & Swaminathan, S. (2025). Developing a Safety Management System for the Automated Vehicle Industry. SAE Technical Paper (No. 2025-01-8673). https://doi.org/10.4271/2025-01-8673.

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• Dynamic Benchmarks: Spatial and Temporal Alignment for ADS Performance Evaluation

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  Chen, Y., Scanlon, J. M., Kusano, K. D., McMurry, T., Victor, T. (2025). Dynamic Benchmarks: Spatial and Temporal Alignment for ADS Performance Evaluation. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981251398744

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• Do Autonomous Vehicles Outperform Latest-Generation Human-Driven Vehicles? A Comparison to Waymo's Auto Liability Insurance Claims at 25 Million Miles

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  Di Lillo, L., Gode, T., Zhou, X., Scanlon, J. M., Chen, R., & Victor, T. (2024). Do Autonomous Vehicles Outperform Latest-Generation Human-Driven Vehicles? A Comparison to Waymo’s Auto Liability Insurance Claims at 25.3M Miles.

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• Baseline vulnerable road user injury risk in multiple U.S. dense-urban driving environments

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  Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., Kadar, I., Lavy, L. L., Moura, D., & Kusano, K. D. (2024). Baseline vulnerable road user injury risk in multiple U.S. dense-urban driving environments. Traffic Injury Prevention, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2024.2364050.

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• Kinematic characterization of micro-mobility vehicles during evasive maneuvers

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  Terranova, P., Liu, S.Y., Jain, S., Engstrom, J., Perez, M.A. (2024). Kinematic Characterization of Micro-Mobility Vehicles During Evasive Maneuvers. Journal of Safety Research, 91, 342-353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2024.09.020

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• Characterising vulnerable road user evasive manoeuvring in real-world crashes: Injury risk implications

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  Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., Kusano, K. D. (2024). Characterising Vulnerable Road User Evasive Manoeuvring in Real-World Crashes: Injury Risk Implications. In Proceedings of the International Research Consortium on Biomechanics of Injury (IRCOBI) Conference 2024, IRC‐24‐117.

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• Active inference-based modeling of human driver collision avoidance behavior

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  Schumann, J. F., Engström, J., O’Kelly, M., Kober, J., and Zgonnikov, A. 2024. Active inference-based modeling of human driver collision avoidance behavior. Poster presented at the 5th International Workshop on Active Inference, 9-11 September 2024 in Oxford, UK.

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• Active inference as a general framework for modeling human driving behavior

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  Engström, J., O’Kelly, M., Johnson, L., Dinparastdjadid, A., Liu, S-Y and Messias, J., 2024. Active inference as a general framework for modeling human driving behavior. Poster presented at the 5th International Workshop on Active Inference, 9-11 September 2024 in Oxford, UK

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• Representative cyclist collision injury risk distributions for a dense-urban US ODD using naturalistic dash camera data

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  Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., Kusano, K. D. (2024). Representative Cyclist Collision Injury Risk Distributions for a Dense-Urban US ODD Using Naturalistic Dash Camera Data. SAE Technical Paper No. 2024-01-2645. https://doi.org/10.4271/2024-01-2645

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• Comparative safety performance of autonomous and human drivers: A real-world case study of the Waymo One service

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  Di Lillo, L., Gode, T., Zhou, X., Atzei, M., Chen, R., & Victor, T. (2024). Comparative safety performance of autonomous- and human drivers: A real-world case study of the Waymo Driver. Heliyon, volume 10, issue 14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34379

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• Modeling road user response timing in naturalistic traffic conflicts: A surprise-based framework

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  Engström, J., Liu, S. Y., Dinparastdjadid, A., & Simoiu, C. (2024). Modeling road user response timing in naturalistic traffic conflicts: A surprise-based framework. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 198, 107460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2024.107460

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• Resolving uncertainty on the fly: modeling adaptive driving behavior as active inference

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  Engström, J., Wei, R., McDonald, A. D., Garcia, A., O’Kelly, M., & Johnson, L. (2024). Resolving uncertainty on the fly: modeling adaptive driving behavior as active inference. Frontiers in Neurorobotics 18. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnbot.2024.1341750

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• Comparison of Waymo rider-only crash data to human benchmarks at 7.1 million miles

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  Kusano, K. D., Scanlon, J. M., Chen, Y. H., McMurry, T. L., Chen, R., Gode, T., & Victor, T. (2024). Comparison of Waymo Rider-only crash data to human benchmarks at 7.1 million miles. Traffic Injury Prevention, 25(sup1), S66–S77. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2024.2380786

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• Benchmarks for retrospective automated driving system crash rate analysis using police-reported crash data

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  Scanlon, J. M., Kusano, K. D., Fraade-Blanar, L. A., McMurry, T. L., Chen, Y. H., & Victor, T. (2024). Benchmarks for Retrospective Automated Driving System Crash Rate Analysis Using Police-Reported Crash Data. Traffic Injury Prevention, 25(sup1), S51–S65. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2024.2380522

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• RAVE checklist: Recommendations for overcoming challenges in retrospective studies of Automated Driving Systems

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  Scanlon, J. M., Teoh, E. R., Kidd, D. G., Kusano, K. D., Bärgman, J., Chi-Johnston, G., Di Lillo, L., Favaro, F., Flannagan, C., Liers, H., Lin, B., Lindman, M., McLaughlin, S., Perez, M., & Victor, T. (2024). RAVE Checklist: Recommendations for Overcoming Challenges in Retrospective Safety Studies of Automated Driving Systems. Traffic Injury Prevention. 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2024.2435620

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• Bridging the gap: Mechanistic-based cyclist injury risk curves using two decades of crash data

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  Schubert, A., Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., McMurry, T. L. & Unger, T. (2024). Bridging the gap: Mechanistic-based cyclist injury risk curves using two decades of crash data. Traffic Injury Prevention, 25(sup1), S105–S115. https://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2024.2400276

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• Passenger and heavy vehicle collisions with pedestrians: Assessment of injury mechanisms and risk

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  Schubert, A., Babisch, S., Scanlon, J. M., Campolettano, E. T., Roessler, R., Unger, T., McMurry, T. L. (2023). Passenger and heavy vehicle collisions with pedestrians: Assessment of injury mechanisms and risk. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 190, 107139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2023.107139

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• Descriptive analysis of cyclist dooring events using data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS)

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  Campolettano, E. T., Scanlon, J. M., Victor, T. (2023). Descriptive Analysis of Cyclist Dooring Events Using Data from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS). In Proceedings of the International Research Council On Biomechanics of Injury (IRCOBI) Conference 2023, Cambridge, UK. Paper number IRC-23-112.

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• Representative pedestrian collision injury risk distributions for a dense-urban US ODD using naturalistic dash camera data

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  Campolettano, E., Scanlon, J. M., Victor, T. (2023). Representative pedestrian collision injury risk distributions for a dense-urban US ODD using naturalistic dash camera data. In Proceedings of the 27th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV), Yokohama, Japan. Paper number 23-0075.

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• Measuring surprise in the wild

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  Dinparastdjadid, A., Supeene, I., & Engström, J. (2023). Measuring surprise in the wild. arXiv preprint arXiv:2305.07733.
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2305.07733

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• Interpreting safety outcomes: Waymo’s performance evaluation in the context of a broader determination of safety readiness

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  Favaro, F.M., Victor, T., Hohnhold, H. and Schnelle, S. (2023). Interpreting Safety Outcomes: Waymo’s Performance Evaluation in the Context of a Broader Determination of Safety Readiness. In 10th International Symposium on Transportation Data and Modelling (ISTDM2023) Ispra, 19-22 June 2023, Duboz, L. and Ciuffo, B. editor(s), Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023. https://doi.org/10.2760/135735.

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• Framework for a conflict typology including contributing factors for use In ADS safety evaluation

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  Kusano, K., Scanlon, J., Brännström, M., Engström, J., Victor, T. (2023). Framework for a conflict typology including causal factors for use in ADS safety evaluation. In Proceedings of the 27th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV), Yokohama, Japan. Paper number 23-0328-O.

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• ADS standardization landscape: Making sense of its status and of the associated research questions

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  Schnelle, S., & Favaro, F. (2023). ADS standardization landscape: Making sense of its status and of the associated research questions. arXiv preprint arXiv:2306.17682. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2306.17682

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• Challenges for the evaluation of automated driving systems using current ADAS and active safety test track protocols

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  Schnelle, S., Kusano, K., Favaro, F., Sier, G., Victor, T. (2023). Challenges for the evaluation of automated driving systems using current ADAS and active safety test track protocols. In Proceedings of the 27th International Technical Conference on the Enhanced Safety of Vehicles (ESV), Yokohama, Japan. Paper number 23-0329-O.

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• Safety performance of the waymo rider-only automated driving system at one million miles

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  Victor, T., Kusano, K., Gode, T., Chen, R., & Schwall, M. (2023). Safety Performance of the Waymo Rider-Only Automated Driving System at One Million Miles.

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• An active inference model of car following: Advantages and applications

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  Wei, R., McDonald, A.D., Garcia, A., Markkula, G., Engstrom, J., O’Kelly, M. (2023). An active inference model of car following: Advantages and applications. arXiv preprint arXiv:2303.15201. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.15201

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• World model learning from demonstrations with active inference: Application to driving behavior

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  Wei, R., Garcia, A., McDonald, A., Markkula, G., Engstrom, J., Supeene, I., O’Kelly, M. (2022). World Model Learning from Demonstrations with Active Inference: Application to Driving Behavior. In: Buckley, C.L., et al. Active Inference. IWAI 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1721. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-28719-0_9

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  Favaro, F., Hutchings, K., Nemec, P., Cavalcante, L., Victor, T. (2022). Waymo’s fatigue risk management framework: prevention, monitoring, and mitigation of fatigue-induced risks while testing automated driving systems. arXiv preprint arXiv:2208.12833. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2208.12833

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